2001

PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION FOR 24-HR DURATION OVER SOUTHEAST ASIAN MONSOON REGION - SELANGOR, MALAYSIA

Mohd Nor Mohd Desa, Noriah A.B, P.R.Rakhecha
Humid Tropics Centre (HTC) Kuala Lumpur
Indian Institute of Tropical Metreology, India

The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for stations in Malaysia using Hershfield formula is routinely estimated as mean plus 15 standard deviations processed from yearly maximum rainfall values. The value of 15 as frequency factor is too high for a humid region such as Malaysia. In this paper, yearly maximum 1-day rainfall data of about 30-60 years for 33 stations in the region of Selangor, Malaysia, were analysed in an attempt to estimate PMP for 1-day duration based on an appropriate frequency factor for the first time. Based on the actual rainfall data of the stations, the highest value of this frequency factor was found to be 8.7. The frequency factor of 8.7 was subsequently used to estimate 24-h PMP values for the 33 stations. Using these PMP estimates, a generalised map was prepared showing the spatial distribution of 24-h PMP. It was found that 24-h PMP over Selangor, Malaysia, varied from 375 to 500 mm and the average ratio of the 24-h PMP to the highest observed 1-day rainfall was found to be about 2.0. The PMP map is considered as important to determine reliable and consistent PMP estimate for any location in Selangor, Malaysia, for designing costly and large hydraulic structures.

SELECTING A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR EXTREME RAINFALL SERIES IN MALAYSIA

Zalina Mohd Daud, Mohd Nor Mohd Desa, Kasim A.H.M, NGUYEN Van-Thanh-Van
Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)
Humid Tropics Centre (HTC) Kuala Lumpur
Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University,Canada

This paper discusses the comparative assessment of eight candidate distributions in providing accurate and reliable maximum rainfall estimates for Malaysia. The models considered were the Gamma, Generalised Normal, Generalised Pareto, Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel, Log Pearson Type III, Pearson Type III and Wakeby. Annual maximum rainfall series for one-hour resolution from a network of seventeen automatic gauging stations located throughout Peninsular Malaysia were selected for this study. The length of rainfall records varies from twenty-three to twenty-eight years. Model parameters were estimated using the Lmoment method. The quantitative assessment of the descriptive ability of each model was based on the Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient test combined with root mean squared error, relative root mean squared error and maximum absolute deviation. Bootstrap resampling was employed to investigate the extrapolative ability of each distribution. On the basis of these comparisons, it can be concluded that the GEV distribution is the most appropriate distribution for describing the annual maximum rainfall series in Malaysia.